How to bet on the Oscars and probably win this year 2022

[Anderson]

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I'll do the breakdown below.

[Anderson]

Best Visual Effects: Dune
Best Sound: Dune
Best Live Action Short: The Long Goodbye
Best Animated Short: Robin Robin
Best Production Design: Nightmare Alley
Best Original Song: No Time to Die
Best Original Score: Dune
Best Makeup: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best International Feature Film: Drive My Car

[Anderson]

Best Animated Feature: Encanto
Best Cinematography: Dune
Best Costume Design: Cruella
Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul
Best Documentary Short: The Queen of Basketball
Best Film Editing: Dune

[Anderson]

Best Original Screenplay: Licorice Pizza
Best Adapted Screenplay: CODA
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Best Actress: Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) [Stat wise: it's an honest coin flip between Chastain and Cruz, I'm leaning Cruz due to how the membership splits)
Best Actor: Will Smith (King Richard)
Best Director: Jane Campion (Power of the Dog) [As much as it would be a first, the odds are shaking out this way for a film to have its only Oscar win be Director.)
Best Picture: CODA

[FilmNerdJamie]

The categories prone for a WTF upset are Actress (I too am going for Cruz) and Director.

Will I be wrong? Absolutely. But fuck it. Go big or go home. Gonna predict that like Russell Crowe in 2002 (who won all the precursors and had this shit locked down... until his big mouth cost him after a full-blown temper tantrum at the BAFTAs), Campion's big smug mouth costs her the Directing Oscar.

It's also kinda weird to imagine Power of the Dog winning solely in Directing since Coda is (rightfully) taking Best Picture and Dune will rake up the tech wins.

Sam Elliott actually spoke for the majority of the industry, contrary to what Film Twitter tells itself.

[Matt]

Plenty of sudden heat behind CODA. I should watch that.

[FilmNerdJamie]

It's the kind of film that would have been a WOM/sleeper hit from the 70s into as recent as 10 years ago. Just speaks to how fewer and fewer "small" films studios are focusing on these days.

Not going to reinvent the wheel nor is it trying to. It's a simple story bringing us into an environment foreign to most of us. But it's relatable because we can identify with the lead who is struggling to help her family while trying to start her own life.

It's wonderful.

[Matt]

We watched CODA tonight. You're right, it IS wonderful.

[Abraham Smashington]

Holy shit.

https://twitter.com/hombredelfrid/st...qnekyiHgg&s=19

[Abraham Smashington]

Is this a WWE stunt? Where was the security? Does Will hit like a bitch? Can Rock take a hit? So many questions

[Timothy225]

Probably the most exciting thing to happen to the Oscars in the past 40 years.

Also, and this might belong in the Politics thread, had Cruz done this to Trump back in '16, he might've been President. Just sayin'.

ETA: Just learned Jada Smith has alopecia, hence the short hair (hey, living under a rock as I do, you miss these things), hence Will pimp slapping Rock for saying what he did.

[Martin]

Fucking hell. No ones gives a FUCK about alopecia. It ain’t cancer, so fuck it. You can’t stand the joke, you clap and shit the fuck up. Even if your wife and spawn are untalented actors. Fucking Scientology loving asswipe.

[Martin]

About the Oscars, the 2 biggest snubs:

- Director: Villeneuve deserves it for adapting the unadaptable.

-Animated movie: Fucking Encanto. Average as fuck. Everyone knows the real deal was Mitchells vs the Machines, but the Oscars will always prefer Disney shit.

[Anderson]

Congrats to those that followed my guide. By only missing 3 wins, you would have placed in the top 1% of the country and won your Oscar pool.

Also, Will Smith is now more relevant than the time he welcomed illegal aliens to Earth.

[Abraham Smashington]

Anyone on Smith's side are suspect. I hate that I'm even have to type this out but that toxic masculinity shit is weak as fuck. But Rock learned his lesson, never make fun of someone's beard.