If the Oscars had to happen today, it would look like this. (Forecasting Thread)

[Anderson]

Handicapping for people that actually want to gamble on this. I'm pretty accurate, so I'm just taking the space to see how I hold up this year.

BEST PICTURE (might change back to 5 this year, but I'm sticking with 10 until I hear otherwise. I'll mark off the five that would get it if it switches to 5)

1) The Artist
2) Hugo
3) War Horse
4) The Help
5) The Descendants
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
The Ides of March
The Iron Lady/Young Adult/A Dangerous Method (a real open slot that I'm not solid on yet)

BEST DIRECTOR

Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
Terence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney (The Descendants)
Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March)

BEST ACTRESS

Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Viola Davis (The Help)
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk about Kevin)
Michelle Williams (My Weekend with Marilyn)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

John Goodman (The Artist)
Albert Brooks (Drive)
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
Jessica Chastain (The Help)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Bridesmaids
Young Adult
Midnight in Paris
The Artist
Shame

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Help
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
The Ides of March
The Descendants

[FilmNerdJamie]

There's always a "What the fuck?" nomination coming outta nowhere.

[Anderson]

There's always a "What the fuck?" nomination coming outta nowhere.

I'm trying to factor for that.

I see Patton Oswalt, The Tree of Life and a few foreign flicks with the potential to WTF.

Moneyball is too weak at this point to do much and Sony isn't really pushing it.

Summit's getting behind 50/50 hard, but there's no visible results yet. Other than that, the year is pretty straightforward.

[B_Metal]

Sorry if this is the wrong thread but what was the consensus on Moneyball? I enjoyed it but just saw it so I didn't catch any chatter on it. Hoffman play's a great surly Art Howe even if Howe never got that big.

[FilmNerdJamie]

BEST PICTURE (might change back to 5 this year, but I'm sticking with 10 until I hear otherwise. I'll mark off the five that would get it if it switches to 5)

1) The Artist
2) Hugo
3) War Horse
4) The Help
5) The Descendants
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
The Ides of March
The Iron Lady/Young Adult/A Dangerous Method (a real open slot that I'm not solid on yet)

So early and I don't recall of anything really "sweeping" the Critics' awards so far. I would love for Hugo to come in and butt-fuck the shit outta the competition to claim Best Picture (Because I know for a fact my #1 movie for 2011 Drive has zero chance in Hell...so might as well support my #2 film!) Just not feeling it's chances outside of the technical Oscars though.

BEST DIRECTOR

Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
Terence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)

Nerd senses say it'll be another Picture/Director split.

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney (The Descendants)
Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March)

Competition is so blah this year...I'm gonna go all out and think it's a geniune possibility Fassbenger pulls a Brody.

BEST ACTRESS

Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Viola Davis (The Help)
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk about Kevin)
Michelle Williams (My Weekend with Marilyn)

Davis. The Help will be represented somewhere wins-wise and both Streep and Close suffer from "Good performance, shitty movie" syndrome apparently. Also call me crazy but I could see Wiig getting in there.

[Lisa]

I've barely seen anything this year - same dilemma I've been in the past handful of Oscar seasons.

So, I'll just say two things so far:

1. I really, really hope you're right, Troy, and that they go back to five best pictures. I hate the 10; it makes it just seem like pretty much any picture could get in there that didn't deserve it, just to fill a spot.
2. I'd love Melissa McCarthy to take BSA. LOVE it. She was fabulous, and no one would expect her to win. I know that sucks to say about her, but it's true since "Bridesmaids" was a summer comedy.

That's all I have for now.

[Captain Russ]

I would eat a big dinner. I would drink several glasses of scotch. I would go to sleep early.

The day after, I would look at the results online for my own amusement.

Whoever wins, I'd have little more than cursory interest, as Eddie would not be wearing a leather suit, talking shit to a room of crackers.

[Lisa]

Eddie dropped out after the "Brett Ratner Talked Trash about Gays" scandal, since they're really good friends, Russ. They managed to get Billy Crystal back for this year.

Eddie's Out.

Billy's In.

[Captain Russ]

I don't care how it happened, it happened. Any interest I had in viewing the gladhanding season's biggest night went out the door with Kitt Ramsey.

At least the globes will have an angry turd playing ringmaster again.

[Anderson]

I'm going to create a final forecasting sheet by Friday. I'm feeling way more comfortable in the field now.

Plus, I'll throw down winner picks.


EDIT: I'll go ahead and start now.

[FilmNerdJamie]

I'll be surprised if there isn't a Picture/Director split this year.

[Anderson]

BEST PICTURE (might change back to 5 this year, but I'm sticking with 10 until I hear otherwise. I'll mark off the five that would get it if it switches to 5)

1) The Artist*
2) Hugo
3) Midnight in Paris
4) The Help
5) The Descendants
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse
The Tree of Life
The Ides of March
Moneyball

BEST DIRECTOR

Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)*
Terence Malick (The Tree of Life)
Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney (The Descendants)
Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)*
Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)

BEST ACTRESS

Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Viola Davis (The Help)*
Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk about Kevin)
Michelle Williams (My Weekend with Marilyn)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kenneth Branagh (My Weekend with Marilyn)
Albert Brooks (Drive)
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)*
Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
Nick Nolte (Warrior)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Octavia Spencer (The Help)*
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
Jessica Chastain (The Help)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Bridesmaids
Young Adult
Midnight in Paris*
The Artist
A Separation

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Help
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Hugo
Moneyball
The Descendants *


* = What I believe will win

[Matt]

I think you're right on all counts except for actress. Meryl is going to win again...the praise for her performance is simply too deafening. Octavia's victory will satisfy those that want THE HELP to win an award, so Meryl gets the victory lap.

[Anderson]

I think you're right on all counts except for actress. Meryl is going to win again...the praise for her performance is simply too deafening. Octavia's victory will satisfy those that want THE HELP to win an award, so Meryl gets the victory lap.

Here's the thing about it. I've setup three scenarios.

1) Meryl wins
2) Viola wins
3) Meryl and Viola cancel each other out and Michelle Williams takes it. (The Adrien Brody move).


Number 3 is increasing in probability with each passing week.

[Captain Russ]

If she wins again, I will be disappointed.