RUMOR CONTROL...THESE ARE THE FACTS

[FilmNerdJamie]

We've got 4 superhero movies coming out this Spring/Summer. One of them's gotta flop, and I honestly think it's gonna be GL.

First Class will easily be the lowest grossing X-Men movie. No Hugh Jackman/Wolverine, the retro-60s angle and the last two films were very unpopular.

[Abraham Smashington]

First Class will easily be the lowest grossing X-Men movie. No Hugh Jackman/Wolverine, the retro-60s angle and the last two films were very unpopular.

I was about to come in NERD RAGING because I thought you were referring to X2. I totally forgot about Origins. haha

[Timothy225]

Just saw this article as to why there's been little promotional push for Green Lantern.

I'm with Jamie on First Class - he nailed all three reasons why that movie's going to underperform.

[Matt]

Hey, I hope that you're right. I don't actively want GL to fail...I don't want ANY of the superhero films to fail. The fact is, we're gonna have a glut of them over the next 3 months.

My predictions, based solely on instinct and random guesses pulled from my ass:
'Thor': opens big, drops like a rock. Ends up a modest success.
'X-Men First Class': opens big, has some legs based upon the name. Ends up a success, but not a huge one.
'Captain America: The First Avenger': opens modestly but has long legs due to positive word of mouth. Ends up a success, but not a huge one.
'Green Lantern': Opens modestly, drops quickly. Ends up a flop.

[B_Metal]

Surely at least one on the list has to be a "huge" success. What else is opening this summer?

[FilmNerdJamie]

Green Lantern...I don't know. Reynolds is one of those cats who studios have been shoving down our throats as "the next big thing" for years, and audiences keep shoving him right back saying, "He's OK, but he ain't that awesome!"

[Matt]

That'll depend upon quality, Josh. My assumptions above were based on the fact that the films don't suck but aren't anything special...they're middle of the road films.

If the quality is there, I can see 'Thor' and 'Captain America' being huge smashes and 'X-Men' being a modest success. I don't think that quality will matter on 'Green Lantern'...it'll have its built-in audience and that's it.

I want to be wrong on GL, I really do.

Jesus, don't we also have another 'Ghost Rider' flick this year? Don't we also have a Rainn Wilson superhero spoof? This'll be the year that sours everyone on the superhero genre, then. TOO MUCH.

[FilmNerdJamie]

Surely at least one on the list has to be a "huge" success. What else is opening this summer?

Harry Potter & the This is the Last One Ever Until the Mortgage is Due on Rowling's 5th Castle = #1 grosser of the year; here and worldwide. Everyone wants to see the big Harry and Voldemort fight and the ending with them as adults with their own little kids.

Transformers 3: Michael Bay Blowded Shitz Up Some Morez = Sadly...yeah this one will be big. Not so much as the second one, but will probably match or out-earn the original cinematic masterpiece.

Pirates 4 = Underperformer; have seen nothing but "Ugh - not another one!" reactions to the trailer and time hasn't been kind to the public's perceptions to the earlier sequels.

Cowboys & Aliens = Surprise smash of the summer; a very, very, very sily title. But that trailer seems to have really won people over.

Super 8 = Pure guess. I'm going to guess this does really well. Doubt it'll be the $260 million gross of Abrams' Star Trek. But...I could see this hit the very high 100s or even cross the $200 million mark.

[B_Metal]

Yeah agreed on the too much. Now keep in mind, Avengers is coming I guess, as is Iron Man again. Holy shit so many SUPERHEROES. Also Harry Potter and Transformers I could see going big, the other three? Meh

[Matt]

Cowboys & Aliens = Surprise smash of the summer; a very, very, very sily title. But that trailer seems to have really won people over.

If the movie ends up actually being GOOD, then yeah...this'll be the overperformer. It certainly helps that it's got James Bond and Han Solo (looking like he actually gives a damn) in it. It feels like they're on target with their marketing for it, too.

[FilmNerdJamie]

What else?

Rise of the Apes = Biggest. Bomb. of. this. Summer.

Cars 2 = It might be the least favorite of the Pixars, but it sold a shitload in merchandising and did great in theaters and home-video. They especially say small kids fucking loved it. So yeah...it'll do the typical Pixar $220-$260 million gross. Maybe even more than that because again the first Cars was very well-liked.

Zookepper = Kevin James will continue his dominance as the go-to "Fatty Make Funny" comedy star of choice. People love the guy (his sitcom King of Queens had like 10 seasons after all!), and it's easy to see why. He's just so damn likable.

Larry Crowne - A calculated move to counter-program the same holiday weekend as Transformers: Retardation Reigns. I, for one, will be one of those "younger folk" in the sea of older movie-goers seeing it on opening day. Looks cute enough and Hanks hasn't done something commercial in awhile outside of the boring-as-all-fuck Robert Langdon movies with Ron Howard.

Anything else I'm forgetting?

[Matt]

why do you say that about 'Rise of the Apes?' Is the word BAD on it or is it just a lack of visibility along with the bad residual taste from the Tim Burton remake?

and yeah...you're forgetting 'Fast Five'. I think that'll do some serious business.

[FilmNerdJamie]

Has nothing to do with quality, bud. I fucking love the first four Planet of the Apes films, and even a good chunk of Burton's remake I really liked (what killed that imo, for most people, was the full-retard ending; a twist for the sake of having a twist and one that made no. Goddamn. sense).

But nobody cares about how the apes originally took over the world before Chuckles McHeston went into space and screwed up the space/time continuum. It's following the same dangerous path as Superman Returns, Tron: Legacy and Terminator: Salvation. And James Franco is over-exposed as shit; he can't open a movie either.

[Ari]

I hate Kevin James with the passion of a T-Rex cock.

EDITED TO ADD: Several thousand more T-Rex cocks all plowing into Kevin James at once, moving faster than the speed of sound (light would be a little too much)

[FilmNerdJamie]

Uhh...looks around...

Fast Five - Doesn't count since it opens in April. I am a nerd; so I would bring up that detail. But yeah big hit. Those flicks apparently (I've only seen 2 Fast, 2 Furious) deliver on their promises of hot women, slick cars and having Diesel and Walker together again (and a van-dyke sporting, afro-wearing Dwayne Johnson).

The Hangover Part II - Open huge but won't match the $280 million of the first. A lot of that was due to the lack of competition back in June 2009 thanks to the WGA Strike; left it time to spread like an STD after that big opening weekend it had. If this breaks past $200 million (a rarity for pure comedies), WB should be wise and take it as a win.