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If the Oscars had to happen today, it would look like this. (Forecasting Thread)

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  • If the Oscars had to happen today, it would look like this. (Forecasting Thread)

    Handicapping for people that actually want to gamble on this. I'm pretty accurate, so I'm just taking the space to see how I hold up this year.

    BEST PICTURE (might change back to 5 this year, but I'm sticking with 10 until I hear otherwise. I'll mark off the five that would get it if it switches to 5)

    1) The Artist
    2) Hugo
    3) War Horse
    4) The Help
    5) The Descendants
    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
    Midnight in Paris
    The Tree of Life
    The Ides of March
    The Iron Lady/Young Adult/A Dangerous Method (a real open slot that I'm not solid on yet)

    BEST DIRECTOR

    Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
    Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
    Terence Malick (The Tree of Life)
    Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
    Martin Scorsese (Hugo)

    BEST ACTOR


    George Clooney (The Descendants)
    Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
    Michael Fassbender (Shame)
    Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
    Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March)

    BEST ACTRESS

    Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
    Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
    Viola Davis (The Help)
    Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk about Kevin)
    Michelle Williams (My Weekend with Marilyn)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

    John Goodman (The Artist)
    Albert Brooks (Drive)
    Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
    Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
    Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method)

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

    Octavia Spencer (The Help)
    Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
    Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
    Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
    Jessica Chastain (The Help)

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    Bridesmaids
    Young Adult
    Midnight in Paris
    The Artist
    Shame

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY


    The Help
    Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
    War Horse
    The Ides of March
    The Descendants
    My readers come to me for my thoughts and opinions. I've built myself into a brand


    Click here to visit AndersonVision!

  • #2
    There's always a "What the fuck?" nomination coming outta nowhere.
    Originally posted by Ari
    The only thing I want to tell her vagina is nomnomnomnomnomnomnomnom

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post
      There's always a "What the fuck?" nomination coming outta nowhere.

      I'm trying to factor for that.

      I see Patton Oswalt, The Tree of Life and a few foreign flicks with the potential to WTF.

      Moneyball is too weak at this point to do much and Sony isn't really pushing it.

      Summit's getting behind 50/50 hard, but there's no visible results yet. Other than that, the year is pretty straightforward.
      My readers come to me for my thoughts and opinions. I've built myself into a brand


      Click here to visit AndersonVision!

      Comment


      • #4
        Sorry if this is the wrong thread but what was the consensus on Moneyball? I enjoyed it but just saw it so I didn't catch any chatter on it. Hoffman play's a great surly Art Howe even if Howe never got that big.
        "Fuck Rob. Also, he has a podcast called Podcaust. Edgy Holocaust humor lulz indeed." - The Faraci

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Anderson View Post
          BEST PICTURE (might change back to 5 this year, but I'm sticking with 10 until I hear otherwise. I'll mark off the five that would get it if it switches to 5)

          1) The Artist
          2) Hugo
          3) War Horse
          4) The Help
          5) The Descendants
          Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
          Midnight in Paris
          The Tree of Life
          The Ides of March
          The Iron Lady/Young Adult/A Dangerous Method (a real open slot that I'm not solid on yet)
          So early and I don't recall of anything really "sweeping" the Critics' awards so far. I would love for Hugo to come in and butt-fuck the shit outta the competition to claim Best Picture (Because I know for a fact my #1 movie for 2011 Drive has zero chance in Hell...so might as well support my #2 film!) Just not feeling it's chances outside of the technical Oscars though.

          Originally posted by Anderson View Post
          BEST DIRECTOR

          Steven Spielberg (War Horse)
          Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
          Terence Malick (The Tree of Life)
          Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
          Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
          Nerd senses say it'll be another Picture/Director split.

          Originally posted by Anderson View Post
          BEST ACTOR

          George Clooney (The Descendants)
          Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
          Michael Fassbender (Shame)
          Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
          Ryan Gosling (The Ides of March)
          Competition is so blah this year...I'm gonna go all out and think it's a geniune possibility Fassbenger pulls a Brody.

          Originally posted by Anderson View Post
          BEST ACTRESS

          Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
          Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
          Viola Davis (The Help)
          Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk about Kevin)
          Michelle Williams (My Weekend with Marilyn)
          Davis. The Help will be represented somewhere wins-wise and both Streep and Close suffer from "Good performance, shitty movie" syndrome apparently. Also call me crazy but I could see Wiig getting in there.
          Last edited by FilmNerdJamie; 12-29-2011, 05:06 PM.
          Originally posted by Ari
          The only thing I want to tell her vagina is nomnomnomnomnomnomnomnom

          Comment


          • #6
            I've barely seen anything this year - same dilemma I've been in the past handful of Oscar seasons.

            So, I'll just say two things so far:

            1. I really, really hope you're right, Troy, and that they go back to five best pictures. I hate the 10; it makes it just seem like pretty much any picture could get in there that didn't deserve it, just to fill a spot.
            2. I'd love Melissa McCarthy to take BSA. LOVE it. She was fabulous, and no one would expect her to win. I know that sucks to say about her, but it's true since "Bridesmaids" was a summer comedy.

            That's all I have for now.
            2012 Avatar Theme - LADIES FROM THE GOLDEN AGE OF HOLLYWOOD. January: Ava Gardner.

            INSTANT HAPPINESS - just click!

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            • #7
              I would eat a big dinner. I would drink several glasses of scotch. I would go to sleep early.

              The day after, I would look at the results online for my own amusement.

              Whoever wins, I'd have little more than cursory interest, as Eddie would not be wearing a leather suit, talking shit to a room of crackers.
              Me quick one want slow

              Comment


              • #8
                Eddie dropped out after the "Brett Ratner Talked Trash about Gays" scandal, since they're really good friends, Russ. They managed to get Billy Crystal back for this year.

                Eddie's Out.

                Billy's In.
                Last edited by Lisa; 12-31-2011, 07:07 PM.
                2012 Avatar Theme - LADIES FROM THE GOLDEN AGE OF HOLLYWOOD. January: Ava Gardner.

                INSTANT HAPPINESS - just click!

                Comment


                • #9
                  I don't care how it happened, it happened. Any interest I had in viewing the gladhanding season's biggest night went out the door with Kitt Ramsey.

                  At least the globes will have an angry turd playing ringmaster again.
                  Me quick one want slow

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I'm going to create a final forecasting sheet by Friday. I'm feeling way more comfortable in the field now.

                    Plus, I'll throw down winner picks.


                    EDIT: I'll go ahead and start now.
                    Last edited by Anderson; 01-16-2012, 10:20 AM.
                    My readers come to me for my thoughts and opinions. I've built myself into a brand


                    Click here to visit AndersonVision!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I'll be surprised if there isn't a Picture/Director split this year.
                      Originally posted by Ari
                      The only thing I want to tell her vagina is nomnomnomnomnomnomnomnom

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        BEST PICTURE (might change back to 5 this year, but I'm sticking with 10 until I hear otherwise. I'll mark off the five that would get it if it switches to 5)

                        1) The Artist*
                        2) Hugo
                        3) Midnight in Paris
                        4) The Help
                        5) The Descendants
                        Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
                        War Horse
                        The Tree of Life
                        The Ides of March
                        Moneyball

                        BEST DIRECTOR

                        Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
                        Alexander Payne (The Descendants)*
                        Terence Malick (The Tree of Life)
                        Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
                        Martin Scorsese (Hugo)

                        BEST ACTOR


                        George Clooney (The Descendants)
                        Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
                        Michael Fassbender (Shame)
                        Jean Dujardin (The Artist)*
                        Michael Shannon (Take Shelter)

                        BEST ACTRESS

                        Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
                        Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
                        Viola Davis (The Help)*
                        Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk about Kevin)
                        Michelle Williams (My Weekend with Marilyn)

                        BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

                        Kenneth Branagh (My Weekend with Marilyn)
                        Albert Brooks (Drive)
                        Christopher Plummer (Beginners)*
                        Patton Oswalt (Young Adult)
                        Nick Nolte (Warrior)

                        BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

                        Octavia Spencer (The Help)*
                        Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
                        Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
                        Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
                        Jessica Chastain (The Help)

                        BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

                        Bridesmaids
                        Young Adult
                        Midnight in Paris*
                        The Artist
                        A Separation

                        BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

                        The Help
                        Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
                        Hugo
                        Moneyball
                        The Descendants *


                        * = What I believe will win
                        My readers come to me for my thoughts and opinions. I've built myself into a brand


                        Click here to visit AndersonVision!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I think you're right on all counts except for actress. Meryl is going to win again...the praise for her performance is simply too deafening. Octavia's victory will satisfy those that want THE HELP to win an award, so Meryl gets the victory lap.
                          Originally posted by Martin
                          Who the fuck is Kellan Lutz?
                          Originally posted by gravedigger
                          Basically what I'm saying is that, based on what I've watched so far, we should all listen to Matt more often.
                          Originally posted by Martin
                          And who the FUCK is Peaches Geldof?
                          Kellan Lutz's girlfriend?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Matt View Post
                            I think you're right on all counts except for actress. Meryl is going to win again...the praise for her performance is simply too deafening. Octavia's victory will satisfy those that want THE HELP to win an award, so Meryl gets the victory lap.

                            Here's the thing about it. I've setup three scenarios.

                            1) Meryl wins
                            2) Viola wins
                            3) Meryl and Viola cancel each other out and Michelle Williams takes it. (The Adrien Brody move).


                            Number 3 is increasing in probability with each passing week.
                            My readers come to me for my thoughts and opinions. I've built myself into a brand


                            Click here to visit AndersonVision!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              If she wins again, I will be disappointed.
                              Me quick one want slow

                              Comment

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